TOP5 citric acid products sold in china by 2024[Introduction] Global raw sugar prices fluctuated at low levels during the 2025/26 crushing season, mainly due to strong production increase expectations in major producing countries, especially India, which is expected to increase production by up to 18.5%. In mid-to-late February, overall international supply is expected to be relatively abundant, while demand is relatively stable. However, international tensions may intermittently push up crude oil prices, providing some support for raw sugar prices.
International Raw Sugar Prices Fluctuate at Low Levels in the 2025/26 Crushing Season
International raw sugar futures for the 2025/26 crushing season showed a trend of decline from high levels followed by a period of consolidation at lower levels. ICE raw sugar prices saw a widening decline starting in October 2025, rebounding from their November lows. In January and February 2026, prices fluctuated narrowly within a range of 14-15 cents per pound. As of February 6th, the ICE raw sugar March contract closed at 14.11 cents per pound, a 27.90% decrease compared to the same period last year. The core reason for the decline in international sugar prices remains the certainty of ample global supply.
Global sugar supply is ample, while demand shows no significant growth.
From the supply side, as the world’s largest sugar producer and exporter, Brazil’s sugarcane crushing volume for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach 608.2 million tons, roughly flat year-on-year, with sugar production estimated at 44.3 million tons (USDA data). However, according to the latest data, as of the first half of January 2026, Brazil’s central-southern region had crushed a cumulative total of 601.035 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year decrease of 2.22%; cumulative sugar production reached 40.236 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.86%, while the northeastern region, due to the increased proportion of ethanol production to 45%, only produced about 3 million tons of sugar. From the demand side, Brazil’s domestic sugar consumption is relatively stable, with growth mainly driven by the export market. In particular, benefiting from the depreciation of the Real, Brazil’s sugar exports are highly competitive, and in recent years, its export growth rate to the Asian market has been higher than that to Europe and the United States.
Production of sugar in major global sugar-producing countries
India’s 2025/26 sugarcane crushing season is expected to be a bumper crop. As of the end of January 2026, cumulative sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.79%. The total output for the full season is projected to reach 35 million tons. After deducting 3.5 million tons diverted to ethanol production, net sugar production will be 31.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. The core drivers of this season’s production growth in India are the expansion of sugarcane planting area, increased yield per unit area, and improved sugar recovery rates. Regarding exports, India has only fulfilled 200,000 tons of its 1.5 million-ton export quota, indicating a slow export pace, mainly due to the price difference between domestic and international markets. If domestic sugar prices fall back to levels suitable for export, it could negatively impact the international market.
Thailand’s 2025/26 crushing season is characterized by increased planting area but slower production growth. Sugarcane planting area expanded to 1.68 million hectares, a year-on-year increase of 8%. However, the crushing season’s progress was delayed due to excessive rainfall at the beginning of the season, a ban on burning sugarcane, and the infestation of white leaf disease. As of January 17, 2026, Thailand’s cumulative sugarcane crushing volume for the 2025/26 crushing season was 29.2643 million tons, a decrease of 16.09% compared to the same period last year. StoneX lowered its forecast for Thailand’s sugar production from 11.4 million tons to 10.5 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of only 4.7%, lower than previous market expectations.
Raw sugar prices may see a rebound in the latter half of February.
From the supply side, February is the peak of the crushing season in the Northern Hemisphere. Crushing progress in India and Thailand will accelerate further, while the central and southern parts of Brazil will enter the final stage. However, exports will remain high, resulting in an ample global sugar supply in February. From the demand side, February coincides with the Chinese New Year holiday, leading to a slowdown in domestic spot transactions. While India typically experiences its peak consumption season in February, overall demand remains relatively stable. However, considering risk factors, international tensions could intermittently push up crude oil prices, providing some support for raw sugar prices and potentially leading to a temporary rebound in February. Zhuochuang Information predicts that spot sugar prices may fluctuate at a low level in mid-to-late February, with ICE raw sugar prices fluctuating between 14.1 and 14.8 cents per pound, with a slight month-on-month decrease in the monthly average.
Source: Zhuo Chuang Information)
